During the overnight of August 14, the price of bitcoin hit an all-time high of $4,400 across global exchanges. Two months ago, Sheba Jafari, a lead technical strategist at Goldman Sachs told her clients that bitcoin’s price would rally to $3,900, and now that her forecast came true this week the analyst has set a new target at $4,800.
Goldman Sachs Analyst Who Called Bitcoin’s ‘Top’ Two Months Tries to Predict Again
Bitcoin markets have been on fire lately as the decentralized currency’s market capitalization now exceeds $67B. In fact, the cryptocurrency has gained in value quite a bit over the course of the past seven months, and has only slowed down for short periods of time. Back in June, data analyst Sheba Jafari revealed that she believed bitcoin would slowly creep up to the $3,900 range and her forecast came true. Now according to Business Insider, Jafari is calling a new ‘top’ for bitcoin and believes the price will reach $4,827 before a massive correction.
Jafari predicts extension wave five will produce prices roughly around the $4800 territory, and will be followed by a deep correction to a low of $2,221. After the fifth wave completes, Jafari expects bitcoin prices to plummet 38.2 percent before the market bounces back. “At this point, bitcoin would have to move back under $2,935 to signal that a top is already in place,” the Goldman Sachs analyst explains.
Japan and Asian Markets Are Driving Demand
Many market observers have been wondering why bitcoin’s price has spiked so much. Currently, speculators are asking — Where is all the demand for bitcoin coming from? Charles Hayter, the founder of Crypto Compare, believes a lot of bitcoin demand is stemming from Japan. “Volumes are 42% of total fiat trading with 185k BTC exchanging hands in the past 24 hours on the JPY BTC Crypto Compare Aggregate index,” Hayter explains to news.Bitcoin.com. Hayter believes there are many factors adding to the explosion of cryptocurrency popularity in Asia. “Socio-political instability and uncertainty in Asia regarding North Korea and the U.S.,” may be why these markets are turning to bitcoin, explains Hayter.
Further, Hayter believes the “Mrs. Watanabe Effect” is still taking place in Japan.
“Mrs. Watanabe is an economic term that describes the archetypical Japanese housewife, who actively invests to make a return on family savings, typically in FX,” the Crypto Compare founder tells news.Bitcoin.com. “The practice of selling JPY for FX and carrying the higher interest rates back to Japan is becoming more obsolete with falling global interest rates and a general eking out of yield following the 2007 crash.”
New Zealand Rates were one popular avenue for searching for returns. This could be leading to Japanese investors looking to BTC as an asset that is uncorrelated to traditional assets and therefore a good hedge in the event of a downturn- and also something to add returns to a portfolio.
Hayter also sees the upcoming Segregated Witness activation helping the price move upwards. Another bitcoin market observer, Arthur Hayes, the CEO of Bitmex, also believes bitcoin’s price will reach $5,000 per BTC. “With Segwit implemented, I believe $5,000 bitcoin is within striking distance,” Hayes said.
Sometime’s the Forecasts of Data Analysts and Market Observers Predict the ‘Top’ and Other Times These Calls Are Way Off
At the time of writing on August 15, bitcoin’s price has plummeted from a high of $4,400 to a low of $3,880 (but has since bounced back). With much of the demand stemming from Asia, the Goldman Sach’s analyst may see her prediction come true. However, there have been many other technical critics who called a ‘top’ in the past and failed to follow through with their second forecast. Back in May, an analyst at Forex Analytix, Nicola Duke, used Fibonacci retracement to follow market waves and predicted that month’s high of $2,800.
However, Duke then told mainstream media that the price would be followed by a significant bear run all the way until January of 2017. The Forex analyst said, $2,800 could be the level at which bitcoin begins its fall. The price is likely to hit $1,780, but could even fall as far as $1,470.” Duke said she didn’t expect the price to exceed $3,350-$4,480 until 2018 but her second forecast was way off the radar, and an excessive six-month bear run never materialized.
Additionally the well-known stock researcher from Standpoint Research, Ronnie Moas, also predicted this months catalyst towards the $5K range. However, when the price reached a high of $4,400 Moas changed his prediction, and expects the price to capture $7,800 by the year end and envisions $50,000 by 2027.
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